In a May 2022 note titled, “The End of the Beginning,” Goldman Sachs analyst Nicholas Snowdon said high lithium prices had ignited a surge of new production in Australia, Chile and China, creating a coming flood of supplies that would knock the metal’s price into a sharp decline. From $65 a kilogram at the time, he predicted lithium would fall to an average of $16 a kilo in 2023. Industry hands ridiculed the forecast; Snowdon, they said, had either smoked something or was simply out of his depth.
Today, though we can quibble with the details, Snowdon’s contrarian call looks prescient: The price of lithium last week was $13.70 a kilo, down 84% from a peak of $83 in November 2022. And in a new note, Snowdon’s team said the metal has a further 20% to fall: By the end of next year, he predicts, lithium prices will be $11 a kilo.
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